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Creators/Authors contains: "Duncan, Jonathan M"

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  1. Abstract Efforts to reduce nitrogen and carbon loading from developed watersheds typically target specific flows or sources, but across gradients in development intensity there is no consensus on the contribution of different flows to total loading or sources of nitrogen export. This information is vital to optimize management strategies leveraging source reductions, stormwater controls, and restorations. We investigate how solute loading and sources vary across flows and land‐use using high frequency monitoring and stable nitrate isotope analysis from five catchments with different sanitary infrastructure, along a gradient in development intensity. High frequency monitoring allowed estimation of annual loading and attribution to storm versus baseflows. Nitrate loads were 16 kg/km2/yr. from the forested catchment and ranged from 68 to 119 kg/km2/yr., across developed catchments, highest for the septic served site. Across developed catchments, baseflow contributions ranged from 40% of N loading to 75% from the septic served catchment, and the contribution from high stormflows increased with development intensity. Stormflows mobilized and mixed many surface and subsurface nitrate sources while baseflow nitrate was dominated by fewer sources which varied by catchment (soil, wastewater, or fertilizer). To help inform future sampling designs, we demonstrate that grab sampling and targeted storm sampling would likely fail to accurately predict annual loadings within the study period. The dominant baseflow loads and subsurface stormflows are not treated by surface water management practices primarily targeted to surface stormflows. Using a balance of green and gray infrastructure and stream/riparian restoration may target specific flow paths and improve management. 
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  2. Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 1, 2026
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  4. Abstract Synoptic sampling of streams is an inexpensive way to gain insight into the spatial distribution of dissolved constituents in the subsurface critical zone. Few spatial synoptics have focused on urban watersheds although this approach is useful in urban areas where monitoring wells are uncommon. Baseflow stream sampling was used to quantify spatial variability of water chemistry in a highly developed Piedmont watershed in suburban Baltimore, MD having no permitted point discharges. Six synoptic surveys were conducted from 2014 to 2016 after an average of 10 days of no rain, when stream discharge was composed of baseflow from groundwater. Samples collected every 50 m over 5 km were analyzed for nitrate, sulfate, chloride, fluoride, and water stable isotopes. Longitudinal spatial patterns differed across constituents for each survey, but the pattern for each constituent varied little across synoptics. Results suggest a spatially heterogeneous, three‐dimensional pattern of localized groundwater contaminant zones steadily contributing solutes to the stream network, where high concentrations result from current and legacy land use practices. By contrast, observations from 35 point piezometers indicate that sparse groundwater measurements are not a good predictor of baseflow stream chemistry in this geologic setting. Cross‐covariance analysis of stream solute concentrations with groundwater model/backward particle tracking results suggest that spatial changes in base‐flow solute concentrations are associated with urban features such as impervious surface area, fill, and leaking potable water and sanitary sewer pipes. Predicted subsurface residence times suggest that legacy solute sources drive baseflow stream chemistry in the urban critical zone. 
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  5. Abstract Nonpoint source urban nutrient loading into streams and receiving water bodies is widely recognized as a major environmental management challenge. A dominant research and management paradigm assumes that loading primarily derives from elevated stormwater. However, baseflow can account for a large portion of total loading, especially for low development intensity watersheds which comprise the largest urban areas. We investigated the sources and drivers of nonpoint source baseflow nitrogen loading across 27 headwater catchments in the urbanized Piedmont region of North Carolina, USA. Nitrate isotopes, predictors of concentration‐discharge (CQ) slopes, and predictors of mean annual total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) loading suggest that wastewater was a major baseflow nonpoint source of nitrogen across developed catchments likely contributing 61% of nitrate loading from septic served catchments and 49% from sewer served catchments. Our findings suggest that subsurface TDN was abundant, loading was largely transport limited, and the hydrogeomorphic position of sanitary infrastructure strongly influences transport. We developed an empirical model showing catchment loading increased with the topographic wetness index of sanitary sewer location, convergent sloping land area, parcel density, and residual agricultural landcover (R2 = 0.78). We extended this model to the study region's 1,436 developed small (0.3–20.8 sq km) catchments. We estimated up to 92.7% of nonpoint source baseflow TDN loading comes from low and medium development intensity catchments, and sanitary infrastructure in wet areas of the landscape accounts for 39% of regional baseflow loading. Our research indicates that managing baseflow loading will require addressing lower development intensity catchments and sanitary infrastructure. 
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  6. Abstract We report an empirical analysis of the hydrologic response of three small, highly impervious urban watersheds to pulse rainfall events, to assess how traditional stormwater management (SWM) alters urban hydrographs. The watersheds vary in SWM coverage from 3% to 61% and in impervious cover from 45% to 67%. By selecting a set of storm events that involved a single rainfall pulse with >96% of total precipitation delivered in 60 min, we reduced the effect of differences between storms on hydrograph response to isolate characteristic responses attributable to watershed properties. Watershed‐average radar rainfall data were used to generate local storm hyetographs for each event in each watershed, thus compensating for the extreme spatial and temporal heterogeneity of short‐duration, intense rainfall events. By normalizing discharge values to the discharge peak and centring each hydrograph on the time of peak we were able to visualize the envelope of hydrographs for each group and to generate representative composite hydrographs for comparison across the three watersheds. Despite dramatic differences in the fraction of watershed area draining to SWM features across these three headwater tributaries, we did not find strong evidence that SWM causes significant attenuation of the hydrograph peak. Hydrograph response for the three watersheds is remarkably uniform despite contrasts in SWM, impervious cover and spatial patterns of land cover type. The primary difference in hydrograph response is observed on the recession limb of the hydrograph, and that change appears to be associated with higher storm‐total runoff in the watersheds with more area draining to SWM. Our findings contribute more evidence to the work of previous authors suggesting that SWM is less effective at attenuating urban hydrographs than is commonly assumed. Our findings also are consistent with previous work concluding that percent impervious cover may have greater influence on runoff volume than percent SWM coverage. 
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  7. Abstract Soils derived from different lithologies and their controls on preferential flow remain underexplored in forested landscapes. In the same lithology, the propensity for preferential flow occurrence at different hillslope positions also remains largely elusive. By utilizing a soil moisture response time method, we compared preferential flow occurrence between a shale site (Shale Hills, silt loam soils) and a sandstone site (Garner Run, sandy loam soils) at four hillslope positions: ridge‐top, North‐ and South‐facing mid‐slopes and toe slope, for over 2 years. The catchments are neighbouring and covered by temperate forest. For the four hillslope positions, Shale Hills had higher preferential flow frequencies compared to Garner Run. Between these two catchments, the South‐facing mid‐slope sites showed the highest contrasts in preferential flow frequency (33.5% of events at Shale Hills vs. 8.8% at Garner Run) while the ridge‐top sites showed the lowest contrasts (18.7 vs. 13.2%). Additionally, over the unfrozen period, for seven out of eight monitoring sites, drier antecedent conditions tended to be more favourable for preferential flows to occur, with significant (p < .01) relationships at two sites. Except for the South‐facing mid‐slope sites, both Shale Hills and Garner Run had two preferential flow pathways. The characteristic preferential flow pathways at Shale Hills were the Bwand C horizons, and for Garner Run, preferential flow moved from the E/AE horizon to the Bwhorizon. This study shows that shale‐derived soils tended to have higher preferential flow occurrence than sandstone soils, but hillslope positions exhibit different levels of contrasts. More effort should be paid to study the impact of lithology on preferential flows in the context of land surface modelling and biogeochemical reactions to improve ecosystem services of headwater catchments. 
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  8. Abstract Large‐scale models often use a single grid to represent an entire catchment assuming homogeneity; the impacts of such an assumption on simulating evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow remain poorly understood. Here, we compare hydrological dynamics at Shale Hills (PA, USA) using a complex model (spatially explicit, >500 grids) and a simple model (spatially implicit, two grids using “effective” parameters). We asked two questions:What hydrological dynamics can a simple model reproduce at the catchment scale? What processes does it miss by ignoring spatial details?Results show the simple model can reproduce annual runoff ratios and ET, daily discharge peaks (e.g., storms, floods) but not discharge minima (e.g., droughts) under dry conditions. Neither can it reproduce different streamflow from the two sides of the catchment with distinct land surface characteristics. The similar annual runoff ratios between the two models indicate spatial details are not as important as climate in reproducing annual scale ET and discharge partitioning. Most of the calibrated parameters in the simple model are within the ranges in the complex model, except that effective porosity has to be reduced to 40% of the average porosity from the complex model. The form of the storage‐discharge relationship is similar. The effective porosity in the simple model however represents the dynamic and mobile water storage in the effective drainage area of the complex model that connects to the stream and contributes to high streamflow; it does not represent the passive, immobile water storage in the often disconnected uphill areas. This indicates that an additional uphill functioning unit is needed in the simple model to simulate the full spectrum of high‐low streamflow dynamics in natural catchments. 
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